Never trust an expert: eLearn Magazine's predictions for 2009

[Updated 13/1/2009]

My old friend Colin Squires described an expert as a "cross between a has-been and a drip under pressure", so you will need to take with a pinch of salt the 30 predictions - mine are below - assembled here by Lisa  Neal Gualtieri in the ACM's eLearn Magazine. Last year Stephen Downes did a good review of the predictions for 2008, with gradings, with some nice observations on what makes for useful predictions, and you can now read this year's review.

1. During the coming slump the risk of relying on free tools and services in learning will become apparent as small start-ups offering such services fail, and as big suppliers switch off loss-making services or start charging for them.
2. The Open Educational Resources (OER) movement will strengthen, and will face up to the "cultural" challenges of winning learning providers and teachers to use OER.
3. Large learning providers and companies that host VLEs will make increasing and better use of the data they have about learner behavior, for example, which books they borrow, which online resources they access, how long they spend doing what.

Comments

[Stephen Downes]

I'm working on it. I had to give myself a C, which took the wind out of my sails a bit, but it's about half written and should be out soon.

I distracted myself a bit writing this year's prediction and associated column - reminding myself that I need to strive for accuracy rather than promote pet projects (always a danger when prognosticating).

[Cheers, Stephen]

[Lisa Neal Gualtieri]

I can't wait for your analysis, Stephen. And, yes, many people use the predictions for promotional purposes so give yourself a pat on the back or a cold beer for resisting the temptation.

[Mark van Harmelen]

Thoughts on two of Seb's predictions, numbered as above:

1. Right on! And not only small start-ups failing; we are already seeing the start of a slimming down by larger corporates, see the recent Google rationalisation.

See:
http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/google_giveth_and_it_taketh_away.php

3. I believe that there is a degree of ahead-of-the-curve optimism in predicting the use, in the next year, of user behaviour by learning providers and VLE suppliers. However we have seen increasing progress in the area during the last year, e.g., in the UK by the JISC TILE Project and relatedly, in a slightly different form, by corporates. I predict more progress in the next year, but not the technology making its way to e-learning products.

See:
http://www.jisc.ac.uk/whatwedo/programmes/resourcediscovery/tile.aspx
and
http://therealmccrea.com/2009/01/08/live-blogging-from-the-activity-streams-meetup/

[Mark van Harmelen]

In relation to prediction 3, Ex Libris bX provides literature recommendations based on accumulated usage data. bX is currently being used in trials. Here is an extract from the company's 22/1/2009 media release:

"Ex Libris bX, a first-of-its-kind service, will provide library users with article-level recommendations based on collective usage data amassed from research communities around the world. ... The bX service derives its recommendations from the analysis of tens of millions of transactions performed by users from research institutions worldwide and captured through a large-scale aggregation of link resolver usage logs. ... Sixteen institutions in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia have begun testing bX and are working with Ex Libris on ongoing development before the service’s public launch."

This bodes well.