Fortnightly Mailing

Stretchered off: Hardangervidda to Rjukan

What can go wrong on a ski-trip?

Over Easter this year – with my friends B and A – I did a 9 day hut-to-hut ski-tour running roughly North to South across Hardangervidda, the huge high wild roadless plateau of central Norway, that is bounded to the North by the Hardanger glacier, and to the North and West by the innermost lobes of Hardangerfjord. (At one point the glacier and the sea are less than 10 km apart.)

I did a similar trip in completely different weather and snow conditions in 2008 with B and daughter M (from Haugestøl go Haukeliseter).  This year we started at Hallingskeid on the Oslo to Bergen railway a little East of Finse and a bit before the trains begin their steep decent towards Bergen. For me the trip finished about 2 km short of the road at Haukeliseter after nearly 200 km. (For aficionados our route was Hallingskeid – Rembesdalseter – Kjeldebu – Dyranut – Hadlaskard – Torehytten – Tyssevasbu – Litlos – Hellevasbu – Haukeliseter.)

This Easter, central Norway was blessed with high pressure, leading to sunny, cloudless, cold and largely windless conditions. Lack of snow and previous strong winds meant that there was plenty of lumpy and grooved sastrugi to contend with, and a lot of hard and quite smooth unforgiving and sometimes shiny icy surfaces. And it was exceptionally cold, with -30C on some nights and daytime temperatures of between -23 and -5C.

In the continuation post below are a few pictures from the wonderful trip. But the purpose of this long post is to record what happened when things went wrong. I’m doing this partly to help others better to understand the anatomy of an accident, and partly to get what happened out of my system. What follows is a slightly edited version of something I wrote in Oslo on 1 April on the way home.

Value added measures - some resources

I'm a governor of a big FE college, which means I need to keep an eye on issues like value added measures of teachers' or institutions' performance.

Five items have recently caught my attention and I thought that gathered into one place they might be useful to others. [I'll consider adding more if you send them to me.]

The first two are brief rebuttals of work funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation [PDF] that purports to show that there is year-to-year consistency in the "value" that individual teachers add to learners.

The third is a classy more general piece about the instability of value-added estimates, from the Albert Shanker Institute. The fourth is a recently published article by Schafer and colleagues  which challenges commonly held assumptions about value added. Finally there is a short video by the research psychologist Daniel Willingham (yes, the Daniel Willingham cited by Michael Gove in his speech in praise of tests in November 2012 - on which Willingham was himself moved to comment), which summarises the problem with value added in a particularly accessible way.

1. Gates Foundation Wastes More Money Pushing VAM - by Gene V Glass, Research Professor & Senior Researcher in the School of Education and National Education Policy Center at the University of Colorado
2. The 50 Million Dollar Lie - by New York school teacher Gary Rubinstein
3. A Few Points About The Instability Of Value-Added Estimates - by Matthew di Carlo
4. Evaluating Teachers and Schools Using Student Growth Models [PDF] by William D. Schafer, Robert W. Lissitz, Xiaoshu Zhu, Yuan Zhang, Xiaodong Hou and Ying Li
5. Merit Pay, Teacher Pay, & Value Added Measures by Daniel Willingham -

Climate change - seven reasons why things are looking even grimmer than after the 2009 IPCC

2007 flooding of my aunt and uncle's street in Mercedes, Uruguay

This week's New Scientist has six page piece about Global Warming by Michael Le Page. You need a subscription to access it on line. This is the kind of article that New Scientist should make freely available, on a public service basis. Here are the article's seven headlines, preceded by its summary paragraph.

Five years ago, the last report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change painted a gloomy picture of our planet's future. As climate scientists gather evidence for the next report, due in 2014, Michael Le Page gives seven reasons why things are looking even grimmer.

1. The Arctic is warming faster than predicted
2. Extreme weather is getting more extreme
3. Food production is taking a hit
4. Sea levels will rise faster than expected
5. Greenhouse gas levels could keep rising even if our emissions stop
6. We're emitting more than ever
7. Heat stress means big trouble

Using TrueCrypt instead of EFS to encrypt data on a laptop

For the last several years I've used Microsoft's built-in EFS encryption system for the data directory on my Windows laptop, making it less likely that someone could access my data if I lost my laptop or if someone stole it.

A problem with EFS is that it works behind the scenes: unless you take special steps to save a couple of files that are needed for decryption purposes (away from the device that is encrypted), there is always the nasty and real possibility that you could lose access to all your data. [I know this from a friend who learned it the hard way.]

Last week, on the recommendation of someone I trust, I finally got round to stopping using EFS, switching instead to an Open Source product called TrueCrypt, which is available for Windows 7/Vista/XP, Mac OS X, and Linux. It took me less than five minutes get TrueCrypt installed and running, and less than an hour to use it to encrypt a new data directory and to move my data across.

TrueCrypt's user documentation is exemplary, and TrueCrypt works sufficiently "in the foreground" for you to know that it is there. You can also use it quickly and easily to encrypt removable media like USB sticks or drives. I have also had no trouble getting Carbonite (the remote back-up service that I use) to back the data up from the TrueCrypt encrypted drive. Unlike with EFS, the data once backed up is only encrypted by Carbonite's system, rather than retaining the local encryption as well. That means that when I restore a file from Carbonite it is unencrypted, unless I restore it to an encrypted drive. This was not the case with EFS encrypted files.

I should emphasise here that I am a self-taught amateur on matters such as this. Caveat reader, therefore.

It is a matter of regret....

Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher with Press Secretary Bernard Ingham, second right, and others at Hillsborough on 16 April 1989, the day after the disaster [Source: Page 185 of the Report of the Hillsborough Independent Panel]

With the publication of the coruscating Report of the Hillsborough Independent Panel [PDF], I am rereading my copies of Lord Justice Taylor's August 1989 Interim Report [PDF] and January 1990 Final Report into the 15 April 1989 Hillsborough Stadium Disaster (Cm 759 and Cm 962).

I am also looking again at my copies of a few papers about the disaster, including letters to the press by the then Labour MP for Hillsborough Martin Flannery, and materials from  Sheffield Trades Union Council, including the Trades Council's 3 October 1989 media release "calling for Police Officers, irrespective of rank, found to have been responsible in any way for the disaster, to be dismissed",  and the Trades Council's submissions to the Taylor Inquiry of May and October 1989, in which I had a hand at the time.

Raising money for Barnsley Hospice whilst trying to win a world championship

Source

On 18 August I will ride in a team of veterans in the Brompton World Championships, a surprisingly intense and serious event for users of Brompton folding bikes, involving 750 competitors, including a few world-renowned riders, run on a hilly, narrow, winding course at Blenheim in Oxfordshire.

In 2010 mine was the fastest team of veterans.

Last year we were pipped to second by a cumulative total of 38 seconds, spread across three riders.

You can motivate us to "regain the crown" by sponsoring us in aid of Barnsley Hospice, in whose colours we will ride.

Preventing death on the roads due to obstructive sleep apnoea - excellent efforts by my MP Meg Munn

In 2006 my nephew Toby Tweddell was killed by a truck driven by a sufferer of undiagnosed obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA), since when I have been intermittently involved (with the families of others similarly killed or seriously injured, medical and other specialists, and road safety and health charities) in an informal campaign to get the menace of OSA dealt with.  I've also written the occasional Fortnightly Mailing post relating to OSA, for example:

• 2007 - Sleep apnoea: joined up government needed to prevent road deaths;
• 2008 - Coroner calls for Government action on sleep apnoea;
• 2009 - Finding and treating lorry drivers with sleep apnoea - 13 May adjournment debate in Westminster.

On 20 June my indefatigable MP Meg Munn spoke again in an Adjournment Debate about OSA, this time focusing in part on the inactive "dead sheep" role of the Health and Safety Executive in relation to OSA and truckers. Instinctively I feel that we are now on the edge of making some progress in the campaign.

The links below have more.

• Hansard – Health and Safety Executive debate (Westminster Hall) http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201213/cmhansrd/cm120620/halltext/120620h0002.htm#12062079000118
• Parliament website – Westminster Hall debates: 20 June 2012 (with useful links) http://www.parliament.uk/business/news/2012/june/westminster-hall-debates-20-june-2012/
• 20/06/12 – Politics Home – Meg Munn MP: employers should screen drivers for sleep conditions http://www.epolitix.com/latestnews/article-detail/newsarticle/meg-munn-mp-employers-should-screen-drivers-for-sleep-conditions
• 21/06/12 – IOSH – IOSH cited in Parliament debate on work-related RTAs http://www.iosh.co.uk/news/latest_member_news/mp_cites_iosh_in_debate.aspx
• 22/06/12 – 4-traders – The United Kingdom Parliament : Westminster Hall debates: 20 June 2012 http://www.4-traders.com/news/The-United-Kingdom-Parliament-Westminster-Hall-debates-20-June-2012--14381999/
• 23/06/12 – BBC Parliament – Westminster Hall debate http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01kbfq9
• 25/06/12 – The Star – MP in call for probe into work deaths on roads http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/mp-in-call-for-probe-into-work-deaths-on-roads-1-4677099
• 25/06/12 – SHP online – Road accidents warrant closer HSE involvement, MP urges http://www.shponline.co.uk/news-content/full/road-accidents-warrant-closer-hse-involvement-mp-urges

DECC's Chief Scientific Advisor David MacKay FRS explains how the laws of physics constrain our sustainable energy options

This 18 minute TED-X talk by David MacKay deserves attention, despite the difficulty you may have in making out some of what was on screen during the talk.

For the underpinning analysis, go to MacKay's remarkable book/website Sustainable Energy - Without the Hot Air.

Snippets from 19 May to 3 June

Here in one place are some largely unfiltered snippets from my FriendFeed "stream" (about 2 posts per day) for the period 19 May to 3 June 2012.

Raspberry Pi: A computer that doesn't matter. Mark Johnson's response to Donald Clark. See also http://ff.im/XLhTh - http://dailyimprovisation.blogspot.co.uk/2012...

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Dan Barker's - @danbarker - excellent "Rough Guide To Google Analytics" @A_L_T webinar - Blackboard Collaborate recording, 31/5/2012 - http://repository.alt.ac.uk/2217...

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The need of Plan B. Paul Krugman - Newsnight, 30 May 2012 - convincingly counters John Moulton (venture capitalist/Conservative donor) and Andrea Ledson (Conservative MP/previously Financial Institutions Director at Barclays Bank, hedge fund MD, and Head of Corporate Governance for Invesco Perpetual). - http://www.youtube.com/watch...

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How was Twitter used during the 2011 riots? Researchers and Guardian win top journalism award. "An academic collaboration with the Guardian newspaper has been awarded a data journalism award for its work on how Twitter was used during last summer’s riots." See also http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk... - http://www.manchester.ac.uk/aboutus...

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The New Degree for the New World. "Degreed is a free service that scores and validates your lifelong education from both accredited and non-accredited sources. Degreed gives you the way to have your education validated and enables you to unlock relevant employment and educational opportunities." - http://degreed.com/what-is...

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Udacity expands its range of courses: intro to physics and to statistics; logic & discrete mathematics; software testing; algorithms as applied to social networks. All start on 25 June. - http://udacity.blogspot.co.uk/2012...

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Donald Clark derides the Rasberry Pi. Google's Eric Schmidt applauds it: http://goo.gl/rVEyf. - http://donaldclarkplanb.blogspot.co.uk/

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BBC Newsnight - 7 July 2011 - Guardian editor Alan Rusbridger: 'I warned David Cameron [and Clegg] over Coulson link'. - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1...

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Neelie Kroes (VP of the European Commission): So close on Net Neutrality, but not close enough explains @dweinberger - http://www.hyperorg.com/blogger...

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Slavoj Žižek in the current LRB - Save us from the saviours: Europe and the Greeks. "Markets talk as if they were persons, expressing their ‘worry’ at what will happen if the elections fail to produce a government with a mandate to persist with the EU-IMF programme of fiscal austerity and structural reform." - http://www.lrb.co.uk/v34...

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Will getting a bank loan for a start-up be harder for a graduate if s/he's got a £27,000 student loan? @edent thinks it will. - http://shkspr.mobi/blog...

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"We're creating a culture of distraction". Thoughtful piece by Joe Kraus who founded JotSpot (therefore very clued up) and is now a partner at Google Ventures. - http://joekraus.com/were-cr...

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Nicholas Carr "gamification-fueled unsourcing is a great breakthrough for both business and the social web..it's a win-win all around. Except, of course, for the chump who - n00b! - loses his job." (Isn't there a "lump of labour fallacy" issue in here somewhere - http://goo.gl/TWsKD?) - http://www.roughtype.com/archive...

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Larry Sanger Blog » Is there a new geek anti-intellectualism? http://friendfeed.com/bdieu...

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1998 presentation by Paul Bacsich making "best guess" predictions about the future of networking technologies at a gathering organised by the just established Ufi http://www.matic-media.co.uk/present... [PPT file]. You look back on it - I was there for Paul's talk - and think "it all seemed so horribly complicated compared to how things turned out".

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"Publishing Paradigms of the Future: Where are We Headed?" Slideshare of 27/5/12 talk by Stephen Downes - http://www.slideshare.net/Downes... @downes

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Excellent, thorough, clear and very striking report by @TonyParkin from a a talk about the success of Finland's schools, given by Pasi Salhberg, DG of the Finish Centre for International Mobility and Cooperation. - http://www.agent4change.net/policy...

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@bobharrisonset writes in FE week about the conversion of the Ufi Charitable Trust into a grant-giver. See also http://ufi.co.uk/apply and http://goo.gl/6dJhd - http://feweek.co.uk/2012...

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Interesting report from the @Million_Plus Group about mature students' access to HE. "Contrary to the assumptions of many policy makers and politicians, nearly one in three ndergraduates at UK universities are over the age of 21 when they start their first degree." - http://www.millionplus.ac.uk/researc...

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The emergence of a "digital underclass", by Ellen Helsper / @EllenHel of the LSE Media Policy Project - http://goo.gl/VvEAj; also a useful set of key 2011 documents about Digital Inclusion and ICT Policies. - http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/mediapo...

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Mike Lynch, founder of HP-acquired Autonomy, to leave HP (with rest of management team?) as 300 jobs under threat. Lynch is one of very few "home grown" software entrepreneurs. - http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/Home...

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The Data Journalism Handbook - for anyone who thinks that they might be interested in becoming a data journalist, or dabbling in data journalism. Read, for example: http://datajournalismhandbook.org/1... - http://datajournalismhandbook.org/1...

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Willful blindness - via @tom_watson - interesting piece by Margaret Heffernan in the "Ivey Business Journal" (not my normal reading) - http://www.iveybusinessjournal.com/topics...

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Has Spector Saved Indie Music? This probably would not have made my laugh if "my" Danny wasn't the drummer. Nor would I have seen it. - http://noisey.vice.com/blog...

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Spector's debut album: "Enjoy it while it lasts" http://store.universal-music.co.uk/restofw... 12 tracks, out on 12 August @spector. #hopingtobelookedafterinmydotage

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Facebook-owned FriendFeed #fail: "Friendfeed.com uses an invalid security certificate. The certificate expired on 21/05/2012 20:53."

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@doctorow 14 May Guardian piece "If we don't operate within the realm of traditional power and politics, then we will lose". Excerpt below. - http://www.guardian.co.uk/technol...

"If people who understand technology don't claim positions that defend the positive uses of technology, if we don't operate within the realm of traditional power and politics, if we don't speak out for the rights of our technically unsophisticated friends and neighbours, then we will also be lost."

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Large-scale transformation of one large institution's curriculum. Promising looking slideshare by Mark Stubbs from MMU #lscrd - http://www.slideshare.net/mobile...

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Paul Krugman in the NYT "Apocalypse Fairly Soon". "Things could fall apart with stunning speed, in a matter of months, not years." [Via @eric_mazur] But it does not need to be this way. The excerpt below gets to heart of things. - http://www.nytimes.com/2012...

"Florida and Spain both had housing bubbles, but when Florida’s bubble burst, retirees could still count on getting their Social Security and Medicare checks from Washington. Spain receives no comparable support. So the burst bubble turned into a fiscal crisis, too."

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"Our children are being taught how to use digital things – but not how to make them." Via @joecar. Geoff Mulgan of Nesta (and before that No 10, and various think tanks) writes in today's Scotsman on Sunday. - http://www.scotsman.com/scotlan...

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Via Rob Rambusch - Mike Elgan's piece in Computerworld about how to publish from Google+. - http://www.computerworld.com/s...

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What Is "Ed-Tech"? @audreywatters is on the money with this piece about the very wide range of things, subjects, issues etc. that "Ed-Tech" (a.k.a. Learning Technology?) is about. See also http://www.alt.ac.uk/about-a... - http://www.hackeducation.com/2012...

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Dropping XO tablets from a helicopter into a village where there is no literacy. (I believe this is the research that Sugata Mitra is working on at MIT Media Lab.) - http://www.olpcnews.com/people...

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A freely available resource for automatically associating strings of text with English Wikipedia concepts. http://www.webcitation.org/67ky5o4... is the full paper by Valentin Spitkovsky and Angel Chang, which is explained by Valentin Spitkovsky and Peter Norvig in a long and thorough posting on the Google Research Blog. - http://googleresearch.blogspot.co.uk/2012...

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BBC News - Education Scotland (Government agency) is to consider how digital devices could be used on a wider scale. - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news...

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http://unglue.it/ - not a reference to Italy leaving the Euro but to a crowdfunded, E-Book liberation project. Audrey Watters writes in Inside Higher Ed. - http://www.insidehighered.com/blogs...

How economic inequality harms societies - Richard Wilkinson's July 2011 TED talk

With thanks to Mick Fletcher

I am glad that Richard Wilkinson got to speak at TED Global, and below is the 16 minute talk in full. For more about his and Kate Pickett's influential book "The Spirit Level" go to The Equality Trust.